Decision Making — Case Studies
Real situations, concrete reasoning, and the moments where a clearer process made the difference.
The evidence against intuition-led choices is stronger than most experts admit
Gut feeling is not a decision-making tool. Here is what the evidence says about when intuition fails experienced professionals most.
Why unanimous agreement in decision meetings should worry you, not reassure you
Decisions made by consensus feel safer but the evidence points in the opposite direction. Here is why group agreement is often the worst outcome.
The research on information overload and why better decisions need less, not more
Collecting more information before deciding feels responsible. In practice, it often makes decisions slower, not better. Here is the research.
Why knowing about this bias in theory does almost nothing to stop it in practice
Everyone knows about sunk costs. Almost no one avoids them in practice. Here is why knowing the bias does not protect you from it.
Structured decision tools fail under real pressure — here is the evidence and a simpler alternative
Pros, cons lists and decision matrices look rigorous on paper. Under real pressure, they are the first thing abandoned. Here is what the pattern looks like.
How we structure each case
Situation
What was the actual problem being faced
Constraints
Time, information gaps, competing priorities
Options
What was considered and why some were dropped
Decision
The chosen path and the reasoning behind it
Outcome
What happened and what it taught us
Each case study follows the same five-stage structure. That consistency is deliberate — it lets you compare reasoning across very different scenarios without getting lost in unfamiliar formats.
The goal is not to present perfect decisions. Most of the cases here involve real trade-offs, incomplete information, and outcomes that were mixed at best.
Reading through them builds a kind of pattern recognition. You start to notice when a decision is being made too early, or when the framing of a problem is quietly steering the outcome.
Contributors who examined these cases and wrote up what they found.
Brendan Ó Floinn
Decision Research Lead
Spent years watching how groups reach conclusions under pressure. The patterns repeat more than people expect.
Sigríður Magnúsdóttir
Behavioural Analysis
Most decision errors happen before the actual choice point. The framing does the damage early.
Tomáš Vrábel
Structured Reasoning
A decision that looks obvious in hindsight usually had at least two reasonable alternatives at the time.